Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 4.039339 4.799707 5.644182 6.648794 7.808368 9.101727 10.650350
2025-05-18 2.670679 3.617201 4.790704 6.339681 8.315955 10.737147 13.909919
2025-05-25 1.841683 2.800617 4.109054 5.995553 8.610681 12.067360 16.932813
2025-06-01 1.385156 2.331909 3.735463 5.916347 9.155115 13.709256 20.497255
2025-06-08 1.071646 1.979777 3.430620 5.839323 9.637118 15.267474 24.075044
2025-06-15 0.919838 1.841231 3.410220 6.163944 10.726006 17.787628 29.272978
2025-06-22 0.756603 1.639246 3.238796 6.200339 11.342630 19.631127 33.608607
2025-06-29 0.624808 1.460906 3.068642 6.198616 11.875268 21.371037 37.919713
2025-07-06 0.517985 1.304211 2.904674 6.172461 12.345960 23.034632 42.234380
2025-07-13 0.486001 1.298582 3.029294 6.697737 13.851640 26.570954 49.953530
2025-07-20 0.430619 1.226040 3.003413 6.921460 14.818220 29.247768 56.411146
2025-07-27 0.384622 1.164198 2.987775 7.159494 15.831194 32.084961 63.360419
2025-08-03 0.325392 1.055990 2.855513 7.145990 16.374118 34.160067 69.211187
2025-08-10 0.262025 0.918332 2.628565 6.892212 16.403063 35.283725 73.439726
2025-08-17 0.206331 0.784098 2.380484 6.546900 16.191549 35.916457 76.794469
2025-08-24 0.172515 0.705228 2.255991 6.470010 16.545066 37.687858 82.462576
2025-08-31 0.144371 0.634922 2.138669 6.389650 16.876649 39.436791 88.213451
2025-09-07 0.134351 0.624866 2.188565 6.742190 18.241216 43.437169 98.750906
2025-09-14 0.116446 0.579075 2.123883 6.781973 18.869256 45.923952 106.373701
2025-09-21 0.100133 0.533180 2.048598 6.780242 19.394764 48.229171 113.780206
2025-09-28 0.085676 0.489038 1.968690 6.751974 19.849398 50.412104 121.078158
2025-10-05 0.084665 0.504392 2.088992 7.320430 21.877087 56.267468 136.590876
2025-10-12 0.077457 0.488250 2.098592 7.562418 23.085055 60.346211 148.510578